By Don McClain
Fast Commercial Capital | Medro Advisors
August 21, 2026
Commercial real estate owners have an enormous amount of debt to address this year.
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, approximately $875 billion of commercial and multifamily mortgage debt is scheduled to mature during 2026, representing roughly 17% of the outstanding commercial mortgage debt held by lenders and investors.
That number deserves attention.
But the more important issue for an individual property owner isn’t the size of the national maturity wall.
It’s this:
What happens when your own loan matures?
A commercial mortgage that worked perfectly when it was originated may not refinance into the same proceeds today.
Property values change.
Net operating income changes.
Interest rates change.
Debt-service coverage requirements change.
Lenders change their underwriting standards and their appetite for particular property types.
The result can be a financing problem that isn’t apparent until someone actually runs the numbers.
The $10 Million Loan Problem
Consider a property with a $10 million mortgage approaching maturity.
The owner expects to replace the existing $10 million loan with another $10 million loan.
But after reviewing current NOI, valuation, leverage and debt-service requirements, the new lender determines that the property supports only $8.5 million.
The owner now has a $1.5 million refinancing gap.
The existing lender still expects to be repaid.
The replacement lender is willing to provide only $8.5 million.
Someone has to solve the difference.
That could mean additional borrower equity.
It could mean bridge financing, preferred equity, mezzanine capital, private credit or supplemental collateral.
It could involve negotiating an extension or modification with the existing lender.
Or it could require a broader recapitalization of the property.
There isn’t one solution that works for every transaction.
But there is one factor that improves almost every borrower’s options:
Time.
Time Is Part of the Capital Structure
Borrowers naturally think about interest rates, leverage and loan proceeds when evaluating financing.
Time deserves to be considered alongside them.
Imagine two owners with identical properties and identical loans.
One begins evaluating the refinancing 12 months before maturity.
The other begins 30 days before maturity.
The first owner can potentially improve property performance, renew leases, address deferred maintenance, prepare financial information, obtain updated valuation data, approach multiple lenders and evaluate alternative capital structures.
The second owner may have one overriding requirement:
Find money that can close quickly.
Those are fundamentally different negotiating positions.
And that is why waiting can become expensive even when the eventual financing itself is available.
Capital Hasn’t Disappeared
The maturity wall shouldn’t be confused with the absence of capital.
Commercial real estate lending continues.
Banks, credit unions, life insurance companies, agency lenders, CMBS lenders, debt funds and private-credit providers remain active across different portions of the market.
The financing environment is simply more nuanced than asking one lender for one loan.
Different sources of capital have different requirements regarding:
Property type
Leverage
Debt-service coverage
Borrower liquidity
Sponsor experience
Occupancy
Tenant quality
Location
Loan size
Business plan
Exit strategy
A transaction rejected by one lender may fit another lender extremely well.
Likewise, a property that cannot support the desired proceeds through conventional permanent financing may require a transitional capital structure before permanent financing becomes realistic.
That’s capital strategy—not simply loan shopping.
Start With a Maturity Test
Commercial property owners with debt coming due over the next 6–18 months can perform a relatively straightforward exercise.
Ask:
If this property had to be refinanced today, what would it support?
Start with:
Existing Debt
What is the current payoff?
When does the loan mature?
Are extension options available?
Are there prepayment provisions or other restrictions?
Property Performance
What is the current NOI?
What do trailing operating statements show?
What is current occupancy?
Are major leases approaching expiration?
Are significant capital expenditures coming?
Current Value
What is a realistic current valuation—not the property’s value several years ago?
Current Underwriting
What leverage and debt-service coverage would lenders likely require today?
Available Proceeds
Based on those assumptions, how much replacement debt is realistically available?
Then compare that number with the existing payoff.
If the two numbers are materially different, the borrower has identified the problem while there is still time to structure a solution.
Think in Three Windows
I prefer looking at refinancing preparation through three time horizons.
12 Months: Diagnose
Determine what the property supports and identify any refinancing gap.
This is the time to discover problems.
6 Months: Structure
Determine how the transaction should be capitalized.
Permanent debt?
Bridge financing?
Private credit?
Additional equity?
Preferred equity?
Mezzanine capital?
An extension?
A recapitalization?
This is when the capital stack should begin taking shape.
90 Days: Execute
By this point, the preferred financing path should ideally be moving through underwriting, third-party reports, documentation and closing.
The closer a borrower gets to maturity without a committed solution, the more valuable speed becomes—and the more negotiating leverage can deteriorate.
Don’t Confuse Lowest Rate With Best Execution
Borrowers understandably want attractive pricing.
But in a maturity-driven transaction, the lowest theoretical interest rate isn’t necessarily the best financing.
A 6% loan that never closes doesn’t solve a maturity.
A more expensive financing structure that closes on time, preserves the asset and provides a realistic path to permanent financing may create substantially more economic value.
The correct question is therefore broader than:
“What’s the lowest rate?”
It is:
“What capital structure gives this transaction the highest probability of successful execution?”
2026 Is a Year to Plan Ahead
The $875 billion maturity figure isn’t automatically a prediction of widespread commercial real estate distress.
Many loans will refinance normally.
Others will be extended.
Some borrowers will contribute additional equity.
Others will use bridge or private capital.
Some properties will be recapitalized.
And in certain situations, selling the property will make more sense than refinancing it.
What borrowers should avoid is allowing the maturity date to make the decision for them.
If a commercial real estate loan is scheduled to mature during the next 6–18 months, now is the time to understand what the property supports, what the existing lender expects and what alternative capital sources are available.
Problems identified early are financing challenges.
Problems identified at maturity can become emergencies.
About Don McClain
Don McClain is Founder & Principal of Fast Commercial Capital, a nationwide capital advisory firm specializing in commercial real estate financing, bridge loans, and structured capital solutions.
Through the Medro Advisors platform — which includes Fasty Funding, Alianza Partners, Amable Properties, and America’s Loan Source — he works with investors, business owners, and sponsors across the United States on commercial financing, residential investor lending (1–4 units), business acquisitions, and strategic capital solutions.
Fast Commercial Capital operates nationwide with offices in Miami, Austin, and San Diego.
Fast Commercial Capital:
https://www.fastcommercialcapital.com/
Medro Advisors:
https://sites.google.com/view/medroadvisors/
Additional Analysis
Medium
$875 Billion in Commercial Real Estate Debt Is Maturing in 2026: What Property Owners Need to Know
LinkedIn — Don McClain
$875 Billion in Commercial Real Estate Debt Is Maturing in 2026. Property Owners Should Be Preparing Now.
Fast Commercial Capital — LinkedIn
Sources
Mortgage Bankers Association — 17% of Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Balances to Mature in 2026
Mortgage Bankers Association — Commercial Real Estate Loan Maturity Volumes
Mortgage Bankers Association — Commercial/Multifamily Borrowing Increased 52 Percent in Q1 2026
Federal Reserve Board — H.15 Selected Interest Rates